What action would have the highest expected value if they think the probability of rising consumer confidence is only 0.40?

Advertising strategies EVPI.

a) For the advertising strategies of Exercise 21 and using the probability of 0.70 for rising consumer confidence, what is the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)?
b) What is the EVPI if the probability of rising consumer confidence is only 0.40?

Exercise 21

Advertising strategies decisions. For the payoff table in Exercise 13, find the action with the highest expected value.

a) If forecasters think the probability of rising consumer confidence is 0.70, what is its expected value?

b) What action would have the highest expected value if they think the probability of rising consumer confidence is only 0.40?

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